How many Chinese power, which is difficult to measure. After all, the strength of this thing, including numerous factors visible and invisible. It is precisely because of the strength of discrimination was not clear, will have a strategic policy and action on the differences between strategies. However, the strength of the field of international politics at a certain extent reflected as a deterrent. Although the strength of deterrence can not be exactly the same strength, but through the deterrent power, really a reflection of a general on the strength of China.
North Korea "Satellite Case," are the most recent hot spots of the case. As China's important neighbors, and the benefits of the case with China also has extensive and close contact. Case in the course of this struggle is entirely possible for China as a deterrent force to resolve even the strength of the light of an objective.
Despite North Korea is ready to launch satellites or missiles. Although the difference between the face of it great, but the real deterrent is not on the clear dividing line. If North Korea can launch a satellite, it will inevitably mean that it's long-range missile technology, a major breakthrough. But more than firing missiles to launch satellites much more confidently.
The United States and Japan have blocked off the wind, once declared North Korea to intercept the rocket. It is worth noting that this is only one voice in their domestic, and can not enlarge to the will of the state. Whether the United States or Japan, there is a strong voice is also that there is a relatively moderate voice. Game as a means of declaring the United States and Japan clearly has elements of intimidation.
As for how much has really decide the probability of interception is obviously divergent. Generally speaking, it is not optimistic. Conflict as a means to block the rate of near zero and near one of significance is not absolute. In the interval between the intercept action if successful, result is 1. If the interceptor fails, no doubt can only be zero. Therefore, the United States and Japan want to intercept, you have to swallow the bitter fruit of failure to intercept the preparation. Once intercepted, whether it will be able to successfully become a "satellite event" one of the major variables.
"Satellite Case," another variable of the load carrier is part of North Korea what it is. The difference between the missile and satellite level, at least in terms of public opinion is an objective existence. Of course, both the DPRK launched a missile or satellite, will be subject to sanctions from the United States, Japan and South Korea. Only to shoot down missiles and shoot down satellites, the United States to bear the political costs of the appeal of the sanctions will have the distinction.
North Korea against the United States and Japan also sent to intercept the possibility of its own strong sound - that is, to intercept the war. With the success or failure is not the contact for the action are the intercept. North Korea will draw their own bottom line at the block level or not. This position will by the United States it is very difficult. Because if the interceptor failed, would lead to serious consequences. The United States anti-missile system "flawed" exhibition is now before the world, and the momentum and position of the DPRK will thus be greatly enhanced.
The Korean Peninsula has been crisis. The escalation of the crisis in the whole process, the DPRK has consistently demonstrated a strong posture. This is a toss about the DPRK, in fact, the United States are very hurt. This point strongly to the stability of the United States flower situation on the Korean peninsula can be demonstrated. For the stability of the Korean Peninsula, the United States and even in some of the strategy has to node compromise to the Chinese.
The volatile Korean peninsula so that the United States into a huge embarrassment. Korea and Japan asked for the so-called security. There is nothing more than the two sources of security. First, their own, two are the United States. Certainly do not want the United States and Japan, Korea, through the strengthening of military forces to reduce political control. Korea and Japan are the United States in the Western Pacific region important bridgehead for the United States are strategic interests in Asia to rely on essential security, the United States to contain China's rise is an important tool. No exaggeration to say that on the control of Japan and South Korea have already touched on the basis of American global hegemony, it is related to the core interests of the United States. But the United States but also select their own very limited. Either at the East Asian region to strengthen the military power to protect the security of South Korea and Japan, or have to reduce the tension caused by North Korea atmosphere.
American global strategy, taking into account levels of contraction, it is clear also hope that by reducing tensions on the Korean Peninsula in East Asia to maintain its political status of the advantages of the region. Therefore, at the United States to cooperate with China to participate in the six-party talks.
North Korea's strength in comparison with Iraq, did not place too much of a prize, the biggest difference probably reflected in the cohesion of the nation on. Moreover, the judge is very abstract, it is difficult to recognized. The gap between North Korea and the United States at the balance of power so great, it is what North Korea has dared to threaten the core interests of the United States of courage?
Reckless? North Korea is not a year for two years to take a strong stance in the face of the United States, hard-line North Korea's diplomacy is almost normal. Iraq then, and even its own missiles and the destruction of chemical and biological weapons are good, but also to allow verification. North Korea today, it is a nuclear bomb in hand, but also the development of a global fight against the means of delivery. In contrast, fear of people are not sure North Korea is a kind of reckless behavior. North Korea has the world step by step towards the goal of a nuclear strike capability.
The United States, in the face of a rebellion than to the country of Iraq, why has not it really start? Are on-hand just because North Korea has a nuclear bomb? So North Korea's possession of nuclear bombs at them before? Moreover, even if the DPRK has the ability to fight a nuclear war, nor the potential of a nuclear war. Background stripped out, the DPRK at the United States should have a deterrent capacity of the local community to lift off at least until the nuclear-armed North Korea, even as against Iraq throughout the occupation of the same implementation. The United States for fear of what else is it?
The only answer is China. Although China did not even campaign in the media level, but still believe the United States and North Korea at the East Asian region of China's strength and determination. This is the Chinese deterrent reasons exist. Chinese at once for half a century ago the Korean peninsula has been a war and that war almost paid a tragic price. It is precisely because of those who pay the price, neither the U.S. nor North Korea are China's interests in the Korean Peninsula as a core national interests, and that China has carried out for the Korean peninsula war. This is clearly a deterrent and are a concrete manifestation of the strength.
Rise to the global level, the Chinese fear the United States are at war in the region surrounding the ability. It is clear that in the eyes of the United States, North Korea bring benefits to the heart of the United States are far less harm to the outbreak of war with China, the risks are great. Based on this premise, it is easy to reach an interesting conclusion: the United States found that when touched the bottom line benefits to China and no benefits to their bottom line, they will retreat selection. At the same time, also found that the DPRK is clearly a basic law, and the actual amounts of the international political struggle.
Here raises a question, the problem is that the South China Sea. Game of the Korean Peninsula through the process and results can be found in the full strength of the Chinese reality owned by the United States deterrent. For deterrence and to grasp the game of international politics are the most important means. Therefore, as long as the Chinese problem in the South China Sea on a clear expression of the interests of their bottom line, are the United States must not dare cross any, let alone a small country the Philippines, the surrounding. Show benefits the bottom line has been very clear way, just as we have done in North Korea - to demonstrate willingness to include all means, including war, to maintain benefits. Taking into account the needs and resources of the Chinese national sentiment, it is time to put line includes the core benefits of the entire South China Sea territories. Philippines, Malaysia and other countries, in the interests of the United States to sort of level are much lower than in Korea and Japan. Therefore, we should not have too many concerns, the concerns of the United States. Facts have proved that as long as the Chinese to show their own courage by daring to fight, there is be able to achieve in the surrounding areas of effective deterrence against the United States.
The "satellite case" factor behind it is difficult to say whether the Chinese. After all, the Taiwan issue at the historical period of tension on the Korean Peninsula has been the North and the South Chinese are an important means of interaction. South Korean media accused of ignoring the Chinese, from another angle confirmed the problem in the Chinese words on the right.
Are worthy of careful consideration, even if "satellite case" there is really behind the Chinese figure is also far from adequate. Put the national interest was at the mercy of other countries, this is unrealistic. To be sure, once the DPRK that the interests of his country are inconsistent with China, he would not go in accordance with Chinese ideas. Of course, including the Philippines and other countries, there are benefits of an independent country. Experience in this area that are necessary to reflect the Chinese, but also can make use of the Chinese.
Although the history between the factors that exist, but the Chinese still need to reflect on in the South China Sea problem of inadequate treatment. Land on the deterrence question was even smaller than that of national security border, this normal? National Express in the course of the rise, this has been a passive status of the territory of further deterioration of the conflict, this normal? Mental bottom line people have been trampled on. If the maintenance of territorial integrity and sovereignty should not show the determination, then as time goes by, the glory of the Korean War years will be spent. The end result must be the Korean Peninsula at the Chinese deterrent decline, China's core interests and the loss of country.
Military forces have hardly any direct earnings. It is nothing more than the value reflected in the war and the war on, that is, as there is in favor of one's own country was the ultimate means of peace. Now that has invested substantial resources, and return on request. Lack of funds in the military from coming out of the low period, the effective use of military force in international politics are due to take the game. North Korea can achieve leverage play, and China, as the masters of force, can not even manage?
South China Sea issue, China's approach should be as beloved Premier Zhou Enlai at the oath after the Korean War broke out as: "Chinese people love peace, but in order to safeguard peace and never be afraid of the war against aggression."
Respond to naked aggression, the only way to respond to the threat of war naked!
