Analysts Said The Relationship Between China And Libya's New Regime Will Be Initially Cold

China military19, the media reported yet that Gaddafi still did not give up, is planning to establish an independent state in southern Libya, 20 at night, Gaddafi has been seriously injured died photo spread throughout the world. Gaddafi's former ally, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, after learning of his death, said in Latin, everything is changing.

Gaddafi is still alive when captured

In terms of Gaddafi himself, were killed on the battlefield may be a desirable outcome, as he had previously rhetoric to "die on the battlefield," the same. NATO and the "National Transitional Council", the more like a reassuring.
But Gaddafi's death is difficult to fundamentally solve all the problems, Libya is not a bright tomorrow, unprecedented mechanism of the modern state of Libya's ability to achieve a real sense of the "smooth transition", really difficult to predict.
With the valuable oil resources of Libya dispute, when the smoke cleared, the Libyan, who split a piece of "cake", who can win the big game country, really belong to Libya and the war between the major powers, perhaps only just begun ... ...
Red envelope bad points
After the war against radical belligerent Mangqiang resources' contribution. "
France "Tribune" 21 quoted French Defense Minister as saying hot Laer Long cover, the French will seek dominance in the post-war Libya, said the new leader of Libya, "owe" the French. Long cover day to accept the "World News" interview, said that France "will try to play a major role as a partner in Libya, the Libyan leader know that they owe us a lot."
U.S. Cable News Network (CNN), said Libya is estimated that about 430 million barrels of oil reserves, ranking first in Africa. Before the NATO air strikes about 160 million barrels of daily crude oil production, global oil supply, although only about 2%, but is the world's few high-quality light, sweet crude oil. Europe's most important oil and gas as source countries, Libya's oil production 88% exported to Europe, Italy's exports of total exports accounted for 28%, 15% in France, Germany and Spain account for about 10%.
Reported that before the war, Italy has the largest oil exploration in Libya and production share of the Western countries. In this regard, since the victory of the opposition that the legislation of the Libyan contribution of the French have naturally not buy it. There are reports that once the opposition benefits in exchange for French support of oil interests, pledged to control the post-war France, 35 percent of Libya's oil production. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, the French do not unabashedly involved in Libya's military conflict known as the "investment in the future."
The "investment" is bound to focus on "return." It can be expected, not only between European countries and the United States, even if the war in France and Italy, and even between Qatar and the Arab countries will have a fight for the interests of the Libyan oil exploration game.
"Washington Observer" that from the United States, although its weight in Libya's oil is not large (only 1% of U.S. oil imports from Libya), but because of their participation in military intervention against Libya have spent nearly 10 billion U.S. dollars, so the United States must not willing to separate the interest in this war in Libya, as spectators, some U.S. oil companies such as ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, also eagerly hope to enter Libya.
In addition, with its European allies, the difference is that as a superpower with global interests, the United States from the global counter-terrorism strategy and future development of this round of Libya, North Africa, Middle East turmoil and the future evolution of the region, such as deep-seated pattern of the impact to "weigh" Libya's weight.
Whether the United States intends to set up many years but its still not find foothold in Africa, "African Command" final settled in Libya, has become another focus of observation.
Oil cake
Productivity is the key reconstruction
"Tribune," said Libya's most important post-war reconstruction, is war damage oil production capacity. Gaddafi's death increased the number of interrupts of Libyan oil output in the months after the rapid recovery to the possibility of pre-war level. Previously there had been worried about the outside world, that is because Gaddafi is still at large, his followers and Iraq could launch a similar rebellion against the oil infrastructure. This may cause long-awaited return to normal oil output to delay for some time.
French bank Societe Generale senior commodities analyst Vitner said, fortunately, Gaddafi's followers will now lay down their weapons, Libya will be able to improve the internal security situation, Libya's oil fields will soon resume production.
Italian ANSA news agency reported that Italian energy giant Eni is the first to resume oil exploration in Libya foreign companies. As of September 26, Eni has drilled 15 wells, current daily production of 31,900 barrels of oil. Eni said the company will resume next will be in Libya's production of other wells.
French energy company Total announced September 26 that they had resumed on September 23, oil production, the current scale of production is increasing and is expected to reach 40,000 barrels per day. On the same day, Spain's Repsol-YPF said, although they in Libya's oil reconstruction has not yet begun, but the company has commissioned a contractor to begin to evaluate where the oil structure.
British Broadcasting Corporation reported that Italy and France will resume oil production in oil companies, no doubt to the "transition committee" eating a reassurance.
Make new friends
Unable to play the leading role of NATO invited BRIC siege
French European news station reported that, due to economic recession and the debt crisis and other factors, the NATO countries unable to play the leading role in the reconstruction of Libya alone, so we hope other members of the international community more than their obligations.
The station reported that the EU foreign affairs chief Ashton has said the United Nations should be in Libya since the reconstruction and future development "leading role", while Sarkozy had specifically invited China, Russia, India and Brazil attended the "9.1 "The meeting, and stressed that whether or belligerent, if invited to attend the meeting on" are friends of Libya ", hoping to better the economic situation of these emerging countries intent is obvious.
"USA Today," said Libya has the world's lowest debt ratio, public debt accounted for only GDP3.3%, but after the civil war, Libya devastated, undone, oil production and destruction of public infrastructure in many, many people home destroyed, damage to property. OECD forecasts economic growth for 2011, Libya 19%, compared with -16% in 2012, economic over-dependence on oil exports, oil exports and over-reliance on its own economic downturn but also France, Italy and China, these are the reconstruction of negative factors.
"France 24" news network said, in addition to the division of oil and cake will be trillions of dollars for the reconstruction of the order of the fight outside, led Libya's future political development and their integration into the French President Nicolas Sarkozy proposed the establishment of the "ring Mediterranean Sea Economic Circle "(Gaddafi in the past refused to join the mechanism), it is France and other EU countries further strategic planning.
In addition to this plan, including some EU countries, but also including the Mediterranean coast of Egypt, Tunisia and other North African countries and the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel, Syria, Qatar and other Middle Eastern countries. This "economic circle" of the establishment, not only for Europe's strategic security establishment of buffer zones, and beneficial to the economic expansion of territory, and enhance the French, the European Union's influence in the world.
Libya's relations with China will be cold
Russia, Brazil and China had been no support for the Libyan intervention. The end of August, Reuters quoted a spokesman for the Libyan oil company, said Mary Friends of the husband, then in the opposition came to power, the interests of the three countries will be affected, but analysts believe that this may be a "Dikaigaozou" process.
Dalton, former British ambassador in Libya for the new financial reporters that the case of China, in the long run, due to China's significant economic strength, China will be able to continue to engage in trade with Libya, the new government.
"In the beginning may be a cold relationship, but if the Chinese government's policy on Libya and needs of the new government sensitive to the cold relationship will not last long." Dalton said.
No guarantee that an old friend
European and American intervention is difficult to continue the friendship with the Arab world
"Washington Post" quoted an Atlantic Council in Washington, a senior adviser as saying, "Now the situation is reminiscent of Libya was continuing chaos in Iraq, do not know 'National Transition Council' how to avoid Libya into a quagmire. "
"The Sydney Morning Herald," speculated that Gaddafi's bloody death is the fact that the legitimacy of NATO intervention in the situation in Libya, which the legitimacy of the Arab League and Gulf Cooperation Council in the UN Security Council authority.
While the Arab countries and Turkey is now the National Transitional Council has recognized the legitimate government of Libya, then, to help rebuild Libya's responsibility and whether they fall on the shoulders of European members of NATO do?
USA and Colombia News Network commented that, obviously, what means for experts to help rebuild Libya is helpless, that the new regime for countries to establish diplomatic and Libya seem difficult.
"The Australian" questioned, "What the Arab world, Libya will?" View report quoted political analysts said, despite the change in Libya now seem encouraging, but the violent revolution and the form of external intervention was not destined to become the Arab world change model, and, in Europe and America's intervention, Libya and the Arab world's ability to "old friends" to continue the friendly will be a major challenge.

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