In China, there is a saying, that is if the ox falls,whet your knife. This week, Gaddafi to taste that feeling.
May 27, the closing of Eight summit, Russia eventually signed with other members of the Group of Eight "Deauville Declaration," Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi agreed should step down. Medvedev agreed to act as "facilitator" and sent a special envoy to visit Libya Benghazi stronghold of the opposition, and said Gaddafi to step down, "regardless of Libya, or on the Libyan people will benefit." June 2, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made it clear that Russia does not consider Gaddafi to provide "immunity or any protection."
From the former "close ally" to the present as a "political corpse", the Russian attitude to the Gaddafi suddenly "fade."
So what exactly is Russia's choice "sacrifice" Gaddafi? Why choose this time to "sacrifice" Gaddafi rather than support for NATO from the beginning? Although we are not "WikiLeaks", not that one of the insider, but I believe that the following aspects can still see some clues.
First of all, the Russian change of attitude, reflecting Russia has begun to "Houkazhafei era," the layout of Libya, Libya's oil and gas resources to do a complete ready to fall into the hands of the opposition. In addition to oil resources, Russia and Libya still has a huge multi-billion dollar arms trade, Gaddafi won if the West is bound to its long-term arms embargo, and if the opposition wins, is bound to the bulk purchase Western products, the two results will bear the huge loss of Russia. But bargain with the opposition in advance, you can minimize that damage, even in the reconstruction process to cash in on some benefits.
Second, the key to changing attitudes in Russia moment, there are three news worthy of special attention.
First, France on May 26 announced the sale of four to Russia for "Northwest Wind"-class helicopter carrier reached an agreement with Russia. French President Nicolas Sarkozy before the start of G8 summit meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Sarkozy to meet Hou Sake announced that France and Russia have "Northwest Wind" class vessels trading to reach a final agreement, talks between the two countries had gone through several times twists and turns and deadlock. Does France have been eager to get Russia's "Northwest Wind" as a "betrayal" Gaddafi's chips, the outside is not known, but according to the Associated Press reported, G8 summit, held in Deauville, France, U.S. President Obama, President of France Sarkozy, Dmitry Medvedev, who was active on lobbying, which prompted Russia's attitude has hardened against Libya. From the current results, "Northwest Wind" is probably an important bargaining chip to persuade the U.S. and Europe one of Russia.
Second, the Russian Federal Military Technical Cooperation Agency 27, said that Russia would sell the U.S. military 21 m -17 military helicopter, equipped with the Afghan Air Force, each priced at $ 17,500,000 helicopter. In France and Russia, "Northwest Wind" in the negotiations, one of the reasons twists and turns continue to oppose the United States, and the reason why France and Russia to negotiate, the United States no longer opposed to is the key factor. Worth pondering is that the U.S. not only did not oppose the law of this fire, the Russian trade, but also "outsiders fertilizer into the fields" to spend more than 300 million U.S. dollars to buy Russian helicopters, is indeed "out of a lot of blood."
Third, the Group of Eight leaders in the "Deauville Declaration", said: "Russia will be the Group of Eight partners committed to active cooperation with Russia to help it join the World Trade Organization during the year." As the world has not yet joined the WTO last the major economies, Russia hopes to join the WTO in 2011 the feelings of the end of long-distance running is very urgent, although the European Union and Russia last year signed an agreement to support Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization, the United States also expressed their support last year, but if the WTO the critical moment, Yinkazhafei trouble with the United States and Europe is too stiff, Russia had to be afraid.
Gaddafi in Russia abandoned this critical moment there are three news is necessarily associated with it, although not conclusive, but the attitude of the U.S. and Europe and Russia choices results, I am afraid that is not just a coincidence.
Finally, Russia's change in attitude, public relations victory for the Libyan opposition. Libya, "the National Transitional Council," Ali, deputy director of the Executive Committee • Esa Wei told Xinhua earlier, the angel of the opposition representatives have been meeting in Moscow with Russia, the Russian opposition has been a positive response. Libyan opposition leaders, "the National Transition Council" principal Xijialile May 28, also said recently the opposition welcomed the Russian policy on Libya made the adjustment. In a "relatively weak" in the Libyan opposition, in order to get Russia's recognition, may be out of its very favorable conditions, the government acknowledged the opposition, Libya, Russia, Libya may be the process of rebuilding from the future to obtain relatively high income .
We turn reasoned that, if Russia did not abandon the Gaddafi, Europe and America, "Sike" in the end, it is likely that such a situation: the other seven countries with the Group of Eight tensions, and France's "Northwest Wind" the continued deadlock in negotiations, and even abortion, and the U.S. helicopters trade fell through in 2011 dashed the aspirations of joining the WTO during the year, the loss of billions of dollars in the Libyan arms trade and the reconstruction process in the future, nothing. I believe that in any case, Russia is not willing to see, from this point of view, the Russian stock of the situation, abandoned Gaddafi, is not so hard to understand.
If we put this event into the history of the coordinate system, you will find alliances and betrayal on the international stage is very common, story of vertical and horizontal are often staged. In the national interest or personal interest, bad faith, may be the last war allies, the next war may be enemies.
Gaddafi abandoned from the analysis and historical experience, we can glimpse into the international military and political struggles of some "hidden rules":
First, there is no eternal friends nor eternal enemies, only permanent interests. International political and military struggle not to do the "virtuous" to seek the maximization of national interests, Gaddafi is the victim of this kind of exchange of interests.
Second, military power is the fundamental means to ensure national interests, should not be relaxed any time on military construction. Only a strong military power, energy and other "mutual assured destruction", to maintain a "balance of terror" is the fundamental national survival, which is a western continuation of the old balance of power thinking. In recent years, Gaddafi and the West in the "reconciliation" in the construction of an easing of military power, the "strips" is incapable of deterring adversaries today, giving opponents the root causes of deadly combat.
Third, the principle of state sovereignty often become a "system of decoration." On the one hand the traditional principle of national sovereignty, such as respect for national independence, sovereignty, equality, noninterference in each other's internal affairs, are still seen as the cornerstone of international relations, but on the other hand, almost of national sovereignty in all respects by the erosion and challenges. International humanitarian intervention violates the sovereignty of many countries, such as today's Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.
Fourth, the interests of big countries toward the international situation is still the decision. Gaddafi is not "totally naive" believe ally, but he did everything on the big countries, might do anything that is the reality of justice.