China military: Recently, the American intellectual Courand company released a new report, the report on Sino-US military conflict broke out of six possible scenarios were analyzed.
Rand reported that the next two decades, China's GDP and the defense budget may exceed the United States. Therefore, China may become a more powerful opponent, over the peak period of the Soviet Union or Nazi Germany. However, neither intends to expand the territory of China, nor attempt to undermine the ideology of its neighbors. China has no intention to catch up with U.S. military spending, achieved considerable global reach, or to assume its outlying areas directly outside the defense mission. However, this objective may be changed, if so, then taking into account the development lead time required for this capability, the United States may be subject to considerable warning.
Rand report said that although China's policy of cautious and pragmatic, but the danger of conflict with the United States still exists, and as China's power increases, the result of this danger and possibility of increase. Here we will introduce the next 30 years, most likely to lead to U.S. military sources of conflict. Since all of the following countries are located directly outside of China, we believe that China will continue to focus their security interests there and ability. We do not believe in any of the following circumstances, the Sino-US military conflict will occur, but the judge is present throughout this period, the U.S. still be able to prevent the cause of this conflict based on the move. In addition, in examining the credibility of the sources of conflict, we will also discuss how these may have given the United States to set what kind of operations produce effects, as well as the needs of defense and deterrence. We will investigate the U.S. to ensure that no conflict with China the capacity required, and the rise of China has concluded the United States should challenge the long-term strategic thinking.
Six kinds of conflict, prospects want to be
Rand reported that the economic decline, there is controversy transition of power, or the defeat of the war with South Korea, these are likely to make North Korea collapse. In either case, the North Korean domestic situation would be chaotic and confusing. Thousands or millions of civilians may be moved to the North Korean border, in search of food and to seek safe haven to escape the hostile armed groups battle. Moreover, the collapse of central control may also endanger the Korean weapons of mass destruction and missile assets. In this case, China may be mobilized in the Shenyang Military Region, to send large forces crossed the Yalu River, rescue effort to rectify the flow of refugees.
Rand report said, while the US-ROK Combined Forces Command will be the focus of direct action to ensure that ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction launch site safety. In addition, if the cohesion of the Korean army is still there, the command also need to suppress the threat of Seoul, the Korean People's Army (KPA) long-range artillery. In order to perform these tasks, they will be an urgent need for special forces (SOF), and broke into force and airlift capability. In the meantime, China will in the demilitarized zone (DMZ) north, concerns the involvement of the United States and South Korea, and China may dispatch its troops to control the chaos, and North Korea in Korea before taking over the entire action. However, although South Korea can provide large-scale forces to perform these tasks and capabilities, but they may not be sufficient to cope with North Korea (DPRK) full range and complexity of the collapse. This will require a large number of long-term U.S. ground forces perform tasks in order to quickly capture and protect the many places, including some of the area is very wide areas. The special forces and special nuclear, biological, radiological and high explosive (CBRNE) unit, will be insufficient to deal with this situation.
Rand report said that in this case, whether accidental or deliberate, the possibility of Sino-US military confrontation is high, and probably will upgrade. In addition to intervene in the face of pressure, a direct result of failure to cope with North Korea, the United States will be forced to face a difficult problem: unity or division of the Korean peninsula continues.
Rand report said that although China and Taiwan relations have improved, and continues to improve, but not yet an important issue in achieving effective progress. As long as there is this basic argument, the opportunity to cross-strait conflict will exist. Cross-strait conflict may in many forms, blockade of Taiwan from the mainland port of Taiwan's bombing targets in varying degrees, to full access attempt. Either way, American should be directly involved, its goal is to prevent mainland China will be forced or occupy Taiwan, Taipei damage control military, economic and social widely possible. The core tasks will include the United States to stop China access to air and sea superiority, ground attack missiles Beijing limits the impact will be through a flexible combination of all these active and passive defense and attack operations to achieve, including the United States attacked targets in mainland China, these Taipei and Beijing attack targets relating to actions, all of which are associated with the risk of further escalation of the situation. Indeed, China may try to anticipate and pre-empt such action to stop the United States, China's own actions by the attacks on the United States in the Asia-Pacific assets.
Rand report, along with the development of China's military modernization, the U.S. convinced the ability to complete these tasks is gradually being eroded. Recently, China is able to threaten the United States to deploy land and air power projection platform (air bases and aircraft carriers) and Taipei's own defense capabilities. Since then the current military balance in the region is unlikely to be reversed, and recognize areas of strong resistance, to launch an amphibious attack, there are many difficulties, so the direct defense of Taipei has become a challenge, and probably in the next few years become increasingly difficult.
Rand reported that Sino-US cyber warfare armed hostilities between the two countries may be one aspect or the prelude. Or, it began and remained within cyberspace. This is limited to the field, despite some risk of armed conflict triggered.
Rand reported that repeated invasion of the U.S. network, access to their sensitive data, and no counter-attack by the United States, the PLA may interfere with the United States is trying to get intelligence collection and transfer of power, the United States these intelligence operations related to the project with China's nuclear strategy. Chinese civilian leaders may think such behavior, not the American definition of cyber warfare, so it will not lead to counter-attack. However, such attacks could undermine the work of the United States to carry out important information (including warnings) of the system. If you believe the PLA is the attacker, then the United States may make a counter decision. Taking into account into the PLA's intelligence network is not easy, when the United States might counter attack those who support the network of China's transportation system, including the trade voyages, and military logistics. This will directly affect China's trade. In addition, the strength of the U.S. forces have been observed damage to China, so Washington might command the Pacific Command to enhance the combat readiness of its forces. China does not want to trigger armed conflict, it may be through the "soft kill" (such as link interference) attacks in the Pacific Command for command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) network service of the United States satellites, and the United States will respond the same way. However, such large-scale Sino-US network defense, precision attack capability is limited, so both sides will probably select the desired way to restore deterrence counterattack.
Rand reported that in the next fight against the gradual upgrade process, the two countries will experience a temporary interruption of critical network, resulting in the stock, currency, credit and trade market suddenly under attack. Although both sides to avoid escalation to the level of the armed forces, but caused huge economic losses will continue. Sino-US cooperation on Iran is likely to be stopped, the situation on the Korean Peninsula may also be heating up. Although life will not hurt, but it can cause extensive damage, aggravate confrontation and loss of confidence in the safety of the network. In other words, there will be no "winner."
South China Sea
Rand reported that, at present, the South China Sea there are numerous potential flashpoint. Almost the entire region on China's sovereignty declaration, and many other countries collide opposing declaration of sovereignty, since the since the mid-1970s, the region near the Paracel Islands Spratly Islands in particular giving rise to a limited conflict. The confrontation at sea may lead to wider conflict, for example, between Vietnam and China will be upgraded to a maritime dispute land war. The emergence of the U.S. allies in the Philippines, perhaps erupted in the South China Sea or near some of the deep crisis support for Washington's interests. Recently, China announced that the region is its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the part, it is under the control of the Chinese people, which regulate the free navigation of the proposed global test, and U.S. interests in East Asia pose a direct challenge.
Rand reported that, according to the nature and severity of the conflict, the United States from the implementation of the objectives may include the freedom of navigation, maritime operations against the Chinese control the South's efforts to help the Philippines self-defense to avoid air and sea attacks to occur in the land war in Southeast Asia in support of Vietnam, to protect Thailand (another U.S. ally).
Rand report, the South China Sea or Southeast Asia any accidents that may occur, will ask the United States Air Force and naval forces, to ensure that the battle space to support competitive. Land warfare will produce for the U.S. ground forces (especially the special forces) and the need for forced entry capability. China's current projection of large numbers of troops to the South China Sea, the ability is still limited; In particular, the PLA's limited range of land-based fighter, not far from the local airspace to carry out effective action. However, the next few years, if the Chinese have built the aircraft and aerial refueling capability, then this situation will change. South and Southeast Asia direct defense will continue to be a viable strategy for the next two decades.
Rand reported that there is a dispute of Sino-Japanese relations are at least two reasons. First, for the 19th century to the 1945 Japanese aggression the Chinese people are still full of anger, terror and resentment, and this sentiment is often because the Chinese people as apathetic or insulting behavior of the Japanese aggravated . Second, the current territorial dispute involving the Diaoyu Islands and the East China Sea exclusive economic zones of two overlapping claims, continued to stimulate the relationship between China and Japan. East China Sea maritime accident occurred, or because of some events to expand the war of words maritime upgrade, these are likely to lead to conflict.
Rand reported that may occur in the Sino-Japanese dispute, the U.S. goal would be to help defend Japan, so that the outside world that, while China is "rising", but the U.S. is still the preferred security partner in Asia. To do this, you need to help limit the Japanese army and the damage and restore the relevant field of air and sea control. This may need to attack the mainland United States and Japan to consider targets and require increased attention by all those risks.
Rand report said the growth of Chinese military capabilities, especially its sea, air and missile power projection force capability of the growth will steadily increase the U.S. response to the cost of such accidents. However, the U.S. will not fully withdraw from the West Pacific, and Japan's own defense capabilities will rapidly decline, therefore, the direct defense of Japan is still a reliable strategy for the next 20-30 years.
Rand report said that China and India will see each other as in the Asian continent's geo-political opponents, along the common border between the two countries has long been controversial events, or both due to weak neighbors and how to deal with the dispute, which may cause in the conflict between China and India. Moreover, the addition to the two most populous countries of the world about the dangers of conflict, the fact that both have nuclear weapons will significantly upgrade the associated risk.
Rand report, no matter under what circumstances, the United States may be exposure to the conflict, the United States is its primary concern the safety of tens of thousands of citizens, and one or more of the affected countries, large-scale non-combat evacuation operation (NEO) of the potential demand. This will require a large number of Air Force, Navy and ground forces involved. U.S. may expand public support for India's diplomatic and intelligence secrets to the New Delhi government and military equipment. America's strategic goal is to prevent China to win, to prevent vertical escalation of conflict (such as the use of conventional or nuclear ballistic missiles) or horizontally (such as Pakistan war).
Rand reported that these examples represent the next 10 years and longer, the U.S. could face a military conflict involving China range. These circumstances indicate that, despite the outbreak of war between China and may not be, but still have a variety of advanced U.S. military capabilities, which can be prevented or take advantage of, and in any case, to maintain stability in regional affairs and make an impact, Even in China's growing strength and sphere of influence in the case. This need is growing stronger by the People's Liberation Army, as well as a variety of environmental, geographic and potential conflict areas (land, sea, air, space, network) of the decision.
Rand report said that in Korea, the United States needed the land, tactical air combat and special operations forces; in Taiwan, the Air Force and Navy need to complete the array; in the South China Sea, the United States need a blue-water advantage. In addition, taking into account distance, probably the strength and the U.S. concept of operations, these accidents may make people depend heavily on the U.S. command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities (mainly space-based capabilities). In addition to North Korea, the conflict does not require large-scale U.S. ground forces unexpectedly. Therefore, the United States in East Asia (except Korea away), especially less likely to participate in large-scale land war. Most likely to be North Korean collapse, is likely to involve some competition, but may not go to war with China, but either case, we need a considerable amount of ground forces involved.
Rand reported that, generally speaking, as a war option of direct U.S. military defense is now feasible, despite people's confidence in this approach from the South China Sea (high) to Korea (in) and then to Taiwan (in low ) are different. This is a Chinese anti-access, area denial and limited force projection capabilities to enhance the result. However, the next few years, China may find it difficult to take advantage of unexpected events in North Korea these advantages, and the South China Sea and in China, sensors, communications and missile outside the scope of coverage, not to mention a power projection.
Rand reported that, over time, China will be able to enhance its existing advantages of anti-intervention, and its expansion to the Pacific, Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia eventually. In addition, China's network and anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities may be able to promptly destroy the U.S. command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems, thus weakening the direct defense. All in all, the front-line operations will become more vulnerable to attack U.S. forces, and this is precisely China's military investment and deployment a top priority.
Rand report said, and America's defense may be due to direct the development of China, the use of anti-satellite weapons and cyber attacks more difficult, because U.S. forces rely on and in accordance with computer networks and the concept of space-based C4ISR system operations. Therefore, the PLA seems to think that space and cyber warfare is conducive to China, it may launch two wars. At the same time, as China expand its military reach to the Pacific and the C4ISR system, they will become vulnerable to cyber attacks and the U.S. launched anti-satellite attack. In any case, any form of armed conflict in China and the U.S. will increasingly impact on these new areas, if not by war decide.
Rand reported that direct reduction of defense capabilities will be enhanced to promote the United States turn its weapons, range, geographic and objectives, in order to regain viability and against the Chinese army, transmitters, sensors, and mainland China (or directly outside the theater) other capabilities. In addition, with the People's Liberation Army and the anti-satellite capability development of the network, and increasingly dependent on advanced C4ISR systems, the United States will have to consider the fight against China's satellite and computer networks. These trends will lead to both expand the target selection, in order to get any particular geographic control over the target, but this dominance is limited.
Rand reported that U.S. can not even go to war, but to ensure that direct the increasing difficulty of defense, may have serious consequences, because they may stimulate the Chinese adventure, increased restrictions on the United States, weaken the U.S. commitment to allies and China's neighbors in the face of its own way to China's determination to resolve the dispute. These trends are due to the overall potential of technological progress, military spending continues to increase, and the PLA reform and theory into geographical distance between China and the United States formed. On the other hand, most of China's neighboring countries, the economic and technological sophistication are growing, some of them may choose to state the quality rather than quantity, and the development of Chinese military go hand in hand.
Rand report, to prevent unforeseen technological development, to ensure the survival of the U.S. forces and C4ISR of the United States can not and unable to stop these trends. Taiwan's defense forces have been brought to the United States issues (such as aircraft carriers and the nearby Air Force base), if the collapse of North Korea with China and South China Sea conflict, crisis, the United States will face the problem of combat options. Over time, the United States will feel the need to rely more on more remote, more powerful capabilities. With the U.S. decline in front-line combat survivability, attack range must be increased. U.S. military operations in the Western Pacific focus, geographical restrictions will be the direct defense, to a more powerful reaction, ultimately, from the denial-based deterrence, turned to the threat of punishment based on deterrence. Operations focus on different transfer speeds, the first is Taiwan, followed by Northeast Asia, and then followed by Southeast Asia.
Rand report, which will allow the United States does not participate in China by upgrading and can lead to direct armed conflict around the choice between. Escalation can take several forms. The most severe cases, the United States can more clearly the subtle part of the China strategy: if conventional defense fails, the U.S. military threat and / or U.S. vital interests in the area were destroyed, then the United States would threaten to use nuclear weapons. In all cases, however, important U.S. interests are not threatened. In addition, both the United States now how low the credibility of the nuclear threat, the future will be lower, because China has a clear determination and the ability to create a survivable second-strike deterrent force can defeat U.S. missile defenses (such as through mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, multiple warhead re-entry vehicles / multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MRV / MIRV) and penetration devices, etc.).
Rand report, the U.S. two more likely and more reasonable way to upgrade is blinding the Chinese satellite and computer networks, starting with the war troop facilities in China can begin. In the anti-satellite and network warfare, imagine how to start hostilities easier than to imagine how the end - both sides are likely to attack major civil and economic space systems and networks. The main reason is, most of this space and network infrastructure are dual-use features. U.S. military relies on these facilities, after the People's Liberation Army will gradually rely on such facilities. Make the problem even more serious is that the two methods are to upgrade the main offensive, which satellite and computer networks are difficult to defend against a powerful attacker, but the price is also great. Even with stronger anti-satellite and cyberwarfare capabilities, the United States and China in the battle space and the loss of network upgrade will be at least as much with China, because the U.S. military and intelligence missions and economic balance are more dependent on those areas.
Rand report, the U.S. military is most likely upgrade path, the most reliable, lowest risk way to affect the most one-way, the United States mainland China and other parts of the combat and combat support precision strike conventional targets. Can survive such a blow from the platform and / or beyond the places where Chinese medium-range missiles, so the U.S. can regain the technological and geographic advantages. It can also stop or reverse the U.S. C4ISR networks and the Chinese anti-satellite attack the adverse situation. If you re-gain the advantage, how long will depend on China to enhance intelligence, positioning and time required to combat capabilities. Taking into account China's economic and technical potential answer to this question may be detrimental to the United States and long-term planning. In any case, the United States, routine upgrades, and threat-based deterrence, China will face the danger of escalation, including network and anti-satellite capabilities - through carefully chosen targets, to avoid the strategic location, civil, economic and leadership goals, these risks may will ease, but will grow over time. China's nuclear force command and control of conventional threats, and may even promote China's nuclear reaction.