The possibility of military conflict in South China Sea after Vietnam military exercise

CHINA MILITARY: AFP, Singaporean Vietnam analysts David Koh believe that Vietnam military exercise  heats up  the situation of South China Sea. He estimates it will eventually lead to "confrontation at sea."

June 14, Vietnam Media Vietnam News Agency released a group of Vietnamese naval life in the occupation of the Spratly Islands Reef (Vietnam, said Fan Rong Island) Vietnam military exercise photos.

13 Voice of America quoted the Australian Defense Force Academy, Professor Thayer's words, the Vietnamese live-fire exercises, the next problem is that China will react. Thayer said, "If the United States to take measures, would allow China to take a tougher stance." All territorial disputes with China, in July this year could become the ASEAN Regional Forum's main topics.

Taiwan's "United Daily News" reported on the 13th, the Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, Chen Gong border shaft 11, urged Vietnam to remain calm, not force, to avoid the trap into China.

Thailand's "World News" reported on the 10th, most recently in Vietnam, the Philippines, repeated to the Chinese launched an attack, the Chinese dorsal by hostile forces. Some believe that China, South China Sea when Deng Xiaoping said, "putting aside disputes and seeking common development", is the issue of the South China Sea that China did not want to bullying the weak, but the South China Sea, Asian countries are not grateful.CHINA MILITARY

National University of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Asia-Pacific security expert, said Huang Jing, although the United States called for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, peace and stability, but the real military conflict, the United States can not intervene, because they do not meet U.S. interests.

Former Head of National University of Singapore Lee Lai to accept Taiwan's "Central" interview with reporters, said the South China Sea, although in Asia, time bomb, but the real risk of large-scale military conflict is not high. He said that although China has territorial issues in the tough, but there are many lined up to address global issues. He believes that China and the U.S. have more priority issues, as long as the present South China Sea, the sea lanes free, the U.S. will not be too deeply involved in the dispute.

12 Voice of America said that some political and military experts believe that more and more tense the situation in the South China Sea, although the possibility of war can not be completely ruled out, but not great. Living in the U.S. military commentator Lin Changsheng that there is no indication that China's military buildup in the South do to prepare to deal with conflict, so can not say that the U.S. aircraft carrier into the western Pacific Ocean, is for China.CHINA MILITARY

According to Agence France-Presse reported 14, in Vietnam and China tensions in the sea on the occasion, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, 13, signed a draft qualification documents. Agence France-Presse quoted the Vietnamese "people's army newspaper," 14 reported that "This document is not a mobilization order, but it illustrates what happens in war without military service. From August 1 it will take effect. "Under this order, there are eight types of people may be exempted from military service, including key government officials and child. AFP noted that the day coincided with Vietnam's Nguyen Tan Dung signed the military exercises.

According to Vietnam's 2009 Defense White Paper, the Vietnamese People's Army has 450,000 active duty, 5 million reservists (Vietnamese population of 86 million).

Agence France-Presse said that although Beijing has said 14 in the South China Sea issue will not use force or threat of force, but analysts still believe that the two sides increased the likelihood of conflict.CHINA MILITARY

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