If the matter does not occur, there may no war with China and the U.S. in the South China Sea

South China Sea issue, since China's position as China's core interests, the United States in the ASEAN forum have also done a dark edge exposed position, together with several ASEAN countries echoed off a controversy, so far finding banks.


China's economic rise, the politically have more say in global affairs, the military also have a faster and greater development than in the past. in the seven claims of Foreign Minister Yang Jiechif, the description on the normal economic exchanges of China and South China Sea all the countries is a fact, but China ignored that the Chinese navy in the military, especially the development of military issues, and the South China Sea countries have not reached a military mutual trust, of course, can reach is another question. South China Sea countries have rapid development of China's military power uneasy, which gave the United States to return to Asia, a good appearance opportunities, there is the ASEAN forum That sort of a small storm.


For the United States, Asia, the global interests of the United States has important strategic significance, the balance of power in Asia because of China's rise has been broken, the United States do not want to see.

But the Asian Ye Hao, Southeast Asia, Ye Hao, has been divided does not exist a simple camp boundaries, different countries in Asia to different threats have different feelings. The strength of the United States to Asian countries realize that the opposite side stood the United States will certainly not good, but in China has become the reality of economic power, and not to the advantage against China.


Do not forget, many Southeast Asian countries still believe that their non-aligned policy is a contribution to world peace. Therefore, unless there is also a threat to the interests of China's large-scale move, Southeast Asian countries will not simply stand in line and then form an alliance.


For China, South China's core interests, sovereignty is bound to uphold, but the timing and strategy is important. If, as some people say it, learned this lesson that, in the United States has already announced high-profile return to the case of Asia, only the South China Sea countries have all pushed aside, the Chinese completely useless.


China should use the ancient wisdom, in the development of sea power at the same time, vertical and horizontal alliances, without splitting, and the South China Sea, the parties to find their starting point, strive to maintain a dynamic balance, waiting for the right time to solve the problem.


Some people say there must be a South China Sea, Sino-US war, in fact, the national interests of the United States claimed the right of navigation in the South China Sea, Sino-US interests in the South China Sea is a collision, and no sovereignty dispute, the sovereignty dispute over the national interest than in the U.S. mutual orientation Today has been a significant change, competition and cooperation will soon be full of contradiction and coordination, cooperation is the mainstream of the case, even if there is a conflict, it will not happen so fierce outbreak of war confrontation. To be sure, the United States will not be used by other countries.

Historically, the rise of emerging powers and the existing collision between the interests of hegemonic power, may not have decided the outcome of war, Anglo-American relations is an example. Anglo-American relations Sino-US relations and of course there are many different, but it is undeniable that the current China and the common interests between the United States is more than ever, the two tied and dependent on economic relations, so that even if the two countries have a strategic impact of conflict, both sides will soon be adjusted, before and after the change in location Multimodal speech and the two military tone of the cooling is also an example.


The United States will not have a future war, the vagaries of the world in terms of now, no one is difficult to predict. 20 years ago, who would think of the rapid rise of China will return two years ago, who knows the economic crisis the world has such a big hit, and the world to re-shuffle. With so much uncertainty in terms of, 10 years later 20 years development of the world probably is not that people are now able to predict.


China and the U.S. are from the wisdom of a large country, although all of the strategic objectives of each, each with the national interests of all, the hard-line hawks on both sides Sheng Yin, both sides have claims strongly the voices of moderates, Zao Cheng Guan Xi Shang-US inevitable ups and downs, new controversies arise, the South China Sea is just the latest in a contentious point.


However, for now, on the United States is, after all, there is a general principle and direction that both parties feel that their interests have extensive and significant differences between the great power, stability and sustainable development of bilateral relations is the basic line their own strategic interests and practical interests.


Therefore, the United States despite the dispute over sea power, but as long as no major reversal of U.S. South China Sea would not have "a war" theory. (From China Military Report )

Posted in: Chinese navy,South China Sea