China military: Deputy director of Russian Political and Military Analysis Institute, Alexander Khramchikhin, who often puts forward the China threat theory wrote again, deliberately exaggerating the risks of China to expand living space, make the economic slowdown in China, the internal pressure in the case , it is possible to "foreign expansion" of the road. The article also said that China's military power not only on the rise, and seems to have been "soaring", Russia may not be able to avoid some form of threat to China.
Khramchikhin pointed that in 1979 a short self-defense war in Vietnam, the Chinese army revealed the level of operational command and training insufficient levels of the disadvantages suffered unnecessary casualties. Even in the early 1990s, the Chinese army, though still large, but very old weapons and equipment. All 8000 when the Soviet tanks T-54 are based on various types of old products. As the basis of the 3000 Air Force F-6 fighter is the MiG -19 imitation, there is no a third-generation aircraft. Now all this has completely changed.
Russian experts said, the last 20 years, China's military spending increased almost 20 times this year, nearly $ 92 billion. Even according to official figures, China has become the world's second military power. Foreign experts believe that China's actual military spending is 1.5-3 times the official figure. Although still less than a quarter of the U.S. military, U.S. military expenditures, but not in the same breath. This is because: first, the price difference between the two countries military. China's military arms purchases from state-owned enterprises, private enterprises is derived from the U.S. arms; Second, U.S. military spending gap between wages and allowances, the U.S. military surge is mainly due to the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. In both, the U.S. military expenditures must be much higher than the Chinese army. Although China's military spending to GDP ratio is very small, but China's GDP is already quite large, and continues to grow. China's military spending, too, are growing, the growth rate of GDP growth of 1.5-2 times. Now, whether in Russia or other countries, many people still think that the Chinese military is still stuck in the early 1990s level. Weapons and equipment that China is still quite old, at best it is only imitation weapons in Russia and the West sample. In fact, the truth had not.
Khramchikhin believes that, although China is still today the import of weapons and equipment carefully studied samples, but no longer blindly simply imitation, but creative development. Chinese military enterprises through "processing" so that it becomes, the Russian and Western technology, synthetics, and is a completely different genre of integrated science and technology. To achieve such a complex synthesis of high-tech weaponry, not only a high technology base, but also very powerful local technical schools.
China's strong military road
Russian experts say, Europe is no longer subject to attack any country, he is not ready to attack any country, it is so quickly cut the armed forces in Europe. Retained to reposition forces in counterinsurgency, peacekeeping operations and special operations. Of course, no country dares to attack China, the most effective because it is tantamount to suicide. And the reason China did not attack, even if it is part of the territory occupied by China. This is because: First, China's large population, would have become powerless to any occupation of the task; second, there is no practical significance. China's own natural resources have been struggling to find, and only less and less. Theoretically the only envisaged invasion of China, the United States to use the external sea-and air-based cruise missiles, there may be carrier-based air, on the implementation of China's fight against an attempt to destroy China's economic infrastructure, military industrial enterprises, military and civilian infrastructure, so that the maximum extent, weaken the Chinese military and economic. To counter this threat is purely imaginary, China must vigorously develop the air force and navy, the army completely useless here. The reason why the U.S. invasion is hypothetical, not only because China has nuclear weapons, or because the number of important goals in China much more than the actual U.S. Air Force and Navy combat capability. From the perspective of self-defense, the Chinese army at least the next decade are super-excess, not to mention its strength still more and more quickly enhanced with NATO countries show the opposite trend. Chinese official reiterated and emphasized that China's military build entirely for peaceful defensive purposes.
Khramchikhin said that, in fact, China is growing naval power, from the coastal ocean-going navy Navy to transition. In the multi-purpose submarines (nuclear and diesel submarines) the number has surpassed the United States and Russia. Will soon start building AIP submarines. China's first aircraft carrier will also be served, and certainly not the only one. China's future will build very advanced missile destroyers, with their technical and tactical performance with "Aegis" system of the United States, "Arleigh Burke" class and the Japanese "love Rio," and "King Kong"-class destroyers quite. China's latest 022-type missile boats in the technical and tactical performance on the world's most advanced. Two 071-type universal dock landing ship has been in service, still in construction products, and plans to build a helicopter landing dock. China is expected to be equipped with "DF-21" medium-range ballistic missile-based anti-ship range of up to 1,500 km ballistic missile. Overall, the strength of the Chinese Navy is now fighting both in the Asia-Pacific region, or worldwide, are in second place, and this strength continues to grow. China while also implementing a number of shipbuilding projects, from missile boats to aircraft carriers, strategic missile submarines are now available. The goal is clearly not just coastal defense, or even just landing recover Taiwan, but delivery to the Pacific and Indian troops. And not just for the Southwest, but also for the strategic direction of the northeast.
Russian Journal article said that China's rapidly growing strength of the Air Force combat pace is not slower than the Navy. J-6 in the last one out of combat formation. Chinese Air Force and Navy in approximately 2000 active duty Air Force combat aircraft, at least a quarter of the fourth generation aircraft, mainly Su-27, Su-30, -10, -11 F, F-12. Even number in the modern fighter, China also has to catch up on Russia. China is now about 700 fourth generation fighter, which more than 100 aircraft storage, outside the United States far more than any other country. And F -10, F-11B fighter production of light just started. So in the next 2-3 years, the number of China's modernization will exceed the Russian fighter. China's new aircraft, aircraft life is also longer than the United States and Russia. In addition, China is also developing the J-10 and F-11 carrier-based version (-15 F). First flight earlier this year to make the world a sensation -20 F, although it is not yet a true 5th generation fighter. You know, the Russian T-50 is only just emerged in the last year. China also faces a temporary aircraft engines and airborne radar problem, but with the technological level of China's rapid development, backwardness in this area will soon change. At present, China is also in the air behind the attack, but this problem will be solved. First, there are intelligence reports that China is developing similar to the Su-34 frontline bombers attack version of the J-11, that F -17; Second, China's tactical and tactical missile systems, the number of the world's leading, and the advantages of larger, at least thousands of units, the aircraft can make up for gaps; Third, China has developed a series of attack drones, such as the WJ-600, CH-3, "pterodactyl" and so on. In this field China has surpassed Russia, and even has caught up with the United States. In addition, China is also working to consolidate the land-based air defense system, a large number of imports from the Russian S-300PMU1 and S-300PMU2 air defense missile system, a total of seven groups, 26 battalions. And developed in their home-made on the basis of "red flag -9" surface to air missile system. As for the anti-satellite weapons, China even before the U.S. trials. The development of the Chinese army is more cause for concern.
Network-centric warfare and the effective integration of quality army
Khramchikhin pointed that the tank is often man-made "burial", at least from the Arab war since 1973. However, the tank never actually "died", the Army is still the main attack force. In the 21st century, the war in Iraq and the war in Georgia once again proved that in the Army for the Army's traditional ground war, only to rely on tanks to win. In all major types of weapons, NATO's tanks cut the fastest, the slowest update. Rather, there is no update, all major tanks production project as early as the early 1990s had been stopped. U.S. Future Combat System projects have been halted. This means that NATO tanks will no longer have any prospects. View, the "imperialist aggression Group" no longer attempt to launch a major assault in depth, because the tanks for the first attack. As for China, the last 20 years the number of tanks, mainly the old Type 59, Type 69, Type 79, Type 80 tanks from 8500 to about 4500-5500 vehicles. A new generation of large numbers of tanks, of which about 500 88C type, 96 type about 2500-3000 vehicles, 99 of about 500. And 96-and 99 tanks continue to produce. In short, the Chinese army tanks in the case of a radical improvement in the quality of the number is increasing. Although the Chinese regular army and warehouse storage to reduce the number of tanks to 2100, but China is still the number of main battle tanks, the world's highest, as the world's first production scale tanks, annual output of 100-500 units. And 96-and 99 on the overall combat effectiveness is not inferior to the Russian T-72, T-80 and T-90. Experts were able to find some places E Tanke than Chinese products, but also to see details of Chinese tanks in other leading positions. 99 is the world's first tank is equipped with laser weapons, the main instrument for blinding enemy observation and target hand. In addition, China is also developing a new type of tank in principle, the crew will be only two, the use of unmanned turret. In addition to guns, but also equipped with two six speed guns, including anti-tank missiles for destruction, including various types of targets. This tank may also use small reconnaissance robot.
Russian experts say, China is not only manufacture tanks, also developed by ZBD-05 infantry fighting vehicle based amphibious vehicles, and command vehicles, light tanks, ZTD-05 self-propelled artillery and other combat vehicles. China is the world's such a unique car. U.S. EFV should become such a car, but the research project had to be canceled. In the field of multi-barrel rocket launchers, China in 70-80 years is still far behind the world's largest country, but now apparently has been successfully achieved a breakthrough, even though Russia has not forgotten imitation of the "tornado" rockets, such as A-100 and PHL-03. Of course, China has independently developed a range of up to 200 km WS-2 rocket, also developed a range of up to 400 km modified WS-2D rocket system. And this system can also carry 6-9 missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles using three special, making it Russia's tactical and technical performance is superior to the "Tornado" and the U.S. MLRS. It effectively combines the tactical missile systems, rocket launchers and the advantages to ensure that the second echelon of troops behind enemy lines in intensive fire killing capability. China's current total up to more than 2,500 military rocket door, not only did not reduce the overall quantity, but also increased. Not long ago Luhang Bing also was the soft underbelly of China Army, now not only fully developed, and has symbolic support weapons into the main attack force, including attack helicopters have been WZ -10 mass production.
Khramchikhin pointed out that Western countries, the first American to develop a network-centric warfare concept, creating a new army, the army instead of the traditional labor-intensive. Because network-centric warfare capability can significantly improve efficiency in the use of weapons and equipment, which can significantly reduce staff. China is fully aware of this new change, the introduction of a new policy emphasis on mechanization and fully integrated information technology continue to develop the traditional quantity-oriented army, improving the quality and quantity of power, ready to respond to large-scale conventional war. Also widely implemented network-centric warfare principles and methods, make full preparations. Thus, in Western countries to improve their operational efficiency to reduce combat strength, the Chinese army's combat efficiency and strength while enhancing. This combination will make effective the Chinese army in the foreseeable future to become the world's most powerful army.
The natural demand to expand space
Russian Journal article said that Russian experts said that NATO's attack in the reduction of their strength, but the rapidly increasing Chinese military capabilities, but also in all types of weapons and equipment, including the forward deployment of troops. First, the latest equipment, in particular, main battle tanks, has been fitted out in the Shenyang Military Region and the Beijing Military Region. The former located in the Russian Far East, the latter located in the Transbaikal region; followed by the Jinan Military Region, in fact, other military training field exercises and latest weapons and equipment and use of the reserve; and located in West Siberia and Central Asia at Lanzhou Military Region, Nanjing Military Region, and even Taiwan, is also quite concerned about Russia's direction. The Army is not equipped with two tanks in southern Military Region (Chengdu and Guangzhou), also based on the principle with a considerable amount of new tanks and armored vehicles. The nature of the Chinese army's combat training has undergone major changes in the past five years, large-scale regular army and air force exercises, and even the Army Corps to spend a few troops, drill depth of 1500-2000 km of offensive operations. Play in such exercises, the Taiwan landing, landing back U.S. operations as well as domestic holding stability characteristics are clearly visible.
Khramchikhin said that there are some trends are noteworthy. For example, in recent years a large number of China's major cities began building can accommodate hundreds of thousands of underground bunkers. Official claims for protection against earthquake risk. But any little to understand the basics of seismology or the civil defense people are very clear, in the event of earthquake, underground bunkers would become grave. In fact this practice is that Chinese are not afraid of nuclear attack, has long been well prepared to prevent. At the same time, China 1.8 million tons of oil into strategic reserves, accounting for 40% of annual consumption. 2020, is expected to reach 8 million tons. Typically, this reserve is mainly used for war preparations. China fears that the U.S. Navy cut off from Africa and the Middle East to China's oil shipping lanes. This threat may indeed exist. In response, China is now building for the United States can not cut off the Russian and Central Asian oil pipelines. In addition, China announced its intention to save the euro, buying the most serious problem of EU countries such as Greece, Portugal, Spain, the national debt, but made one of the most important condition, that the abolition of the European arms export ban. In China a lot of modern weapons and equipment have been the case, now why do you need weapons in Europe, is questionable. Have pointed out that the main contents of China's military doctrine is the strategic concept of the border and living space, which is based on rapid population growth and the rapid exhaustion of resources, thus forming a natural expansion of space requirements, in order to ensure further economic activity, expanded natural habitat area, effectively defend national interests. In short, the living space and strategic boundaries should increase as the overall national strength and expansion.
Does China hope the war
Khramchikhin thinks that the Chinese army combat capability since 1979 in more self-defense since the war has not be tested again. In that war, the high morale of the Chinese army, officers and soldiers fighting bravely, swear properly captured. After 32 years, China has changed greatly within the army composition, recruitment is now mainly educated urban youth, but only received primary education is no longer the rural youth. China compulsory military service, manpower is very rich, after all, the number of Chinese military population is only 0.2%. However, even if only 0.2%, enough to become the world's most powerful army. It's hard to say whether the soldiers to keep the city before the tenacious fighting style. Opponents said they are wealthy, child, spoiled by too much; supporters said, the Chinese Internet culture studies have shown that it is these educated urban youth have a strong and adventurous spirit of chauvinism. However, without a doubt, the Chinese soldiers fighting style of the city at least better than the European soldiers, it may not be as good as American soldiers. In addition, China has no problems NATO faces the political differences. China is a centralized state to implement democratic centralism, the military has a large domestic and foreign policy influence.
Khramchikhin thinks that the most critical issue now is whether China has the necessary aggression Russia. China's economic growth and welfare of the people continued to increase under the conditions in the near future, not only China itself, and even the world's resources are in short supply. Should be stressed is that China's economy is the first production of the economy, not as in the West's service economy, so China's demand for raw materials is relatively large, the demand growth rate is much higher than the West. In addition, China continues to maintain previous economic growth will inevitably lead to a real ecological disaster affecting the whole world. However, if growth slows, it is possible to intensify social problems, resulting in mass unemployment and the decline in living standards. In fact, most Chinese people are still relatively poor, coastal and inland, urban and rural income gap and social security gap is too large. If China can not continue to maintain rapid economic growth, not only can not eliminate these gaps, but will lead to great social unrest. The cause of all problems caused by China's population is too large. Began in the late 1970s forced the family planning policy, but only in the city get a better implementation, but further widened the gap between urban and rural life, and led to two more acute social problems: First, the aging of the population serious; second is the imbalance between men and women. On the one hand need to continue to strictly implement the family planning policy, and the need to immediately relax the policy to increase the labor force. In short, China is now in a dilemma to solve this problem is bound to exacerbate that problem. Therefore, all the Chinese people are very clear, the future must make some hard decisions, or bear the social disaster, and even civil war, or to expand living space, competition for resources and territory. There is no third option. This is an objective reality, without any ideological or socio-economic impact of the system. If you do not want civil war in China, we must be prepared to expand. Two years ago, titled "China happy! "A book on hold this view.
Journal article said that Russia, experts say, as to why China, the West must compete for raw materials and not the problem, and very easy to explain. First, China needs raw materials. China's economy is productive, rather than the service economy. China's population is more than twice the population of the West; second, the West can use the money procurement of raw materials, at least a lot of printing, and China would buy bonds the West; Third, China, will soon be a shortage of raw materials, If you can not buy raw materials needed, it can only compete on the market. The West, buying raw materials are more affordable than the war, if the reduction in military strength under the conditions of war, occupation of the territory, will lead to sharp increase in labor costs, psychological factors and democratic management system instability, the cost is too high. And for China, to solve this problem is much simpler. China not only resources, but also the territory of China's sensitivity to casualties low, completely unable to be compared with the West. And can be up to 674.1 million by the farmers to indirect occupation. Chinese farmers are now only 0.07 hectares per capita arable land, raising a maximum of two children, if you migrate to living on the occupied territories, all of these restrictions will be removed. If you hold the hands of weapons, the occupation can be very effective exercise of the functions.
Expansion to the north
Khramchikhin pointed out that as China's future development direction, vast, resource-rich eastern Siberia and the Far East is the natural first target, but not many here, the population is growing rapidly reduced. Kazakhstan is also facing a similar situation. Indo-China is likely to expand in another direction, but the reality here is a small territory, fewer resources, population. This expansion not only to the extent to solve China's resources. And immigration and land shortage will only further deepened.
Russian Journal article said that, of course, some experts deliberately exaggerate China's development against the risk of living space. They stressed that there are almost half of China's own territory has not yet developed, and now 94% of the population lives in 46% of the territory, so no need to expand outwards. Moreover, Siberia and the Far East adverse weather conditions, especially long and cold winter, the Chinese people can not adapt. However, accounting for almost one-third of the Tibetan area of China is the planet's most uninhabitable place, where the average elevation of 4,000 meters, the extreme lack of oxygen, most people can not live this long. And in this high altitude conditions, can not engage in any large-scale economic activities. In short, it is difficult to promote economic development through migration and development in Tibet. Xinjiang's natural conditions, although a little better, but the larger the Gobi Desert, the outlook is not optimistic. In contrast, the Russian Transbaikal and Amur River in much better conditions for agricultural activities, Primorsky Territory is suitable for any economic activity. Even the cold better than Tibet Yakutia region, at least here, not oxygen.
Khramchikhin noted that some experts believe that China has no intention of threatening Russia. An indisputable fact is that even in the most weak post-Soviet Russia, when China did not take any action to further weaken Russia. Indeed, there is no military invasion of Russia was China. However, the strength of the early 1990s the Russian military is much stronger than now, while the Chinese military is significantly weaker than now. At that time China does not have the actual ability to aggression, there is no goodwill, and just take advantage of the weakness of Russia, has been extremely favorable for the formation of bilateral economic relations between Russia unfavorable, lay the foundation for the expanding population. Some experts criticized the China threat theory often point out that China is engaged in solving internal problems, not attend outreach. In fact, precisely in order to solve the internal problems, China only needs to expand.
Russian experts say, is another very popular point of view, can not wantonly preach China threat theory, because the conflict between China and Russia will for America. For this problem, we can say, in the United States and Russia conflict between the three countries will be on any third State. US-Russian conflict, China's natural benefits. However, both the Russian government, or academia, have never been to China as a potential ally against the United States. Even more critical is that the Chinese threat to Russia than the United States fueled the root cause, but the objective needs of China's own development, it is the nature of China's social and economic, not political the decision is completely independent.
Khramchikhin saud that the main strategic direction in the implementation of military reform, Russia faces the situation is not encouraging. Southern military forces able to respond to the theater in the whole situation, because Georgia has been defeated, not yet recovered. With NATO member Turkey is unlikely the outbreak of war temporarily, although the future does not rule out the possibility of Russia's land conflicts; Central Military potential adversaries through the border without hub, is actually a strategic preparation area; the Western Military Region, the surface seriously behind the NATO forces, but because of NATO military power is cut, and do not have any preparations for war, so the current strength is adequate. Moreover, if war really broke out, the Russian military will be very strong support for the armed forces of Belarus; eastern military forces are too weak, either the Army or Air Force, are now unable to China and the Beijing Military Region, Shenyang Military Region, par. And in this strategic direction, strengthen the Russian military strength of the cluster is relatively difficult, the supply line is too long. Northern China is far less than the length of the transport line the Russian Trans-Siberian Railway, and the destruction of the enemy under the strong stability, the overall transmission capacity is much higher. In response to the global economic crisis, the Russian government to recapitalize banks, ignoring the road construction. The Chinese government will invest heavily in infrastructure development, a substantial expansion of high-speed rail and highway network. In a recent exercise, the Chinese military forces frequently exercise a large long-distance rail and road delivery capabilities.
Russian experts pointed out that in contrast to the current conventional forces under the Russian can not afford to compete with the powerful Chinese army. The more critical issue of nuclear deterrence, it is difficult to have a clear answer. His personal views on this are the following:
1, nuclear weapons, other means should be exhausted as a last resort, is the trump card.
2, China also has nuclear weapons and its nuclear arsenal size is not clear, largely unclear. Russian and Western media figures quoted are hundreds of nuclear warheads, dozens of medium-range ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles. This figure is clearly the case with the actual access to a larger, such as China will not only produce a small amount of strategic weapons. Individual Russian media reported that China has at least 1000 intercontinental missiles and medium-range missiles.
3, the sign "INF Treaty", Russia no longer has a medium-range ballistic missiles. China the number of such missiles in the world. Russia was forced to use strategic nuclear forces to curb the U.S., obviously a bit powerless. Moreover, for deterrence, China, Russian ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles and too far.
4, the Russian tactical nuclear weapons, the balance of power is unclear. However, China's tactical nuclear weapons carriers have greater advantages, there are thousands of sets of 150-600 km range of tactical and tactical missile launchers. Russia has only 100 sets of "dot-U" tactical missile system, a range of only 120 km. In the free-fall nuclear bomb carrier aviation, China can use the old H-5, Q-5, F-6 aircraft, the number of its reserves of about 2000-3000 frames. From a tactical perspective, the number of these aircraft alone can break through the Russian air defense system advantages, even if half of the loss is not a problem for China.
5, both with European countries or the United States, even if it is not only a powerful bomb hit its territory, is absolutely unacceptable. Remote areas of China can withstand dozens of nuclear bombs blow.
6, for China, the southeast coastal city of its implementation of intensive nuclear strike is clearly unacceptable. But as counter-measures, China will crack down on Russia's European part of the territory, the Russian deadly destruction.
Khramchikhin pointed that, in short, Russia's nuclear deterrence effect is reflected in the psychological level. Of course, Russia is worried that China may suffer a fatal infer nuclear counterattack, so do not take the risk, especially in the face to keep Russia in the case. That is, if extended to the territory of Russia, China may not be required in these areas in the law into China, only the actual control can be. Russia would not be so thoroughly discredited, at least the national territory remains intact.
Russian experts pointed out that, in fact, the expansion of China may issue a certain extent, is also a psychological problem. China is more willing to not fight the enemy's soldiers, with economic and demographic advantages of the acquisition of territory and resources. Now, Russian officials and most experts on China's potential threat to remain silent, politically and economically to make a concession to the Chinese, fearing angered China. In fact, China now is very pragmatic. If Russia is not only the level of academic experts, but also on the official level to discuss the issue of the China threat and prevention measures, but may reduce the associated risks. This will make China understand the risks and costs to expand the north would be prohibitively high, and thus give up. To achieve this effect, Russia must improve defense capabilities, particularly strategic nuclear forces and air defense systems. More importantly, you must exit the hands and feet bound Russian "in the INF Treaty." It must also enhance the eastern part of the Russian military's conventional forces and nuclear weapons as a last trump card. In addition, Russia is also necessary to establish an international alliance of mutual protection, to Kazakhstan, Mongolia, India and Vietnam as the most important allies, common to contain China.