Warning: Military exercises in Yellow Sea has in the past, an even greater crisis is brewing

- On the meaning and impact of the "indomitable will" leaving the Yellow Sea
Very short-ROK joint military exercise din finally went to the Sea of Japan. It is reported that 2 +2 talks under the US-ROK, this exercise has named them "indomitable will" lineup in the East Sea of Korea, the famous "George Washington" is being won in this field. The Yellow Sea in a massive crisis of this came to an end, no matter how the U.S. and South Korea fooling with, say a series of follow-up exercises, like children fighting, while away often have to call a "Wait" and so on, but the Round any case is over.
The exercise was to have been carried out in the Yellow Sea, South Korea has been so desperately clamor eagerly look forward to, "George Washington" task force has to make great in-depth the Yellow Sea, with firm action to start a strong strategic deterrence of the DPRK Team China have come to an army arrives, lightning, hurricane, has always had a tendency Cuikulaxiu! Even if North Korea can not be crushed in one fell swoop, at least take it scared half to death, this was a hemiplegia of class; in strategy for China with a heavy blow, it also scared a close our doors, hold fast to their own wall homes do not ask right and wrong, not with the DPRK can no longer close. It can be said, If we could achieve deterrence of China, the purpose of isolating the DPRK, the DPRK would be tantamount to breaking a reliable strategic support, and finally get rid of are also within reach.
This is a wonderful prospect ah! Unfortunately, all this became a bubble now, have become yesterday's dream. China's strong opposition, regardless of the Republic of Korea on how eager Multimodal speech is how eagerly looked forward to, and regardless of previous South Korean media uproar is how enthusiastic shouting, "George Washington" was finally put off the Yellow Sea or Hope. Strategic crisis in front of a huge put off in recent decades for the United States is almost unique, this is undoubtedly a major strategic event, careful analysis of its significance and impact that will give us a lot of useful strategic implications.
First, to overcome the crisis is victory
"Tian ship incident" could have been with the occasional accident, but what is unexpected is the development of the case actually be interpreted as the collision between China's strategy, then what is the crisis of this strategy happen?
1, from an event to a strategic crisis.
Tian ship incident could have been matter-of, that is, or North Korea is suspected perpetrators, the parties at best, only the two Koreas. However, South Korea has such a golden opportunity to catch immediately the incident was extremely serious rendering, it seems that North Korea should take this opportunity to launch a full-scale invasion and attack, and then yelling, much not punish North Korea should not allow North Korea to pay the price to live without the taste, to be launched this comprehensive campaign against the DPRK, to enlarge the event into a crisis, not only with the United States and Japan and South Korea launched, China is also ready to pull into their ranks. When you see the Chinese do not ignore South Korea, did not dance with the beat immediately after furious fight against the Chinese by the drawing change, their Chinese do nothing, so they expect Uncle Sam to disguise themselves as the beginning of this article, as described, can count on the U.S. aircraft carrier task force has further north in a big way, Cuikulaxiu, invincible, irresistible force, this way, can the momentum of the overwhelming North Korea, a strategic deterrent in China, let China know that disobedience Korea, North Korea's risk and cost of protection so discouraged.
This is South Korea's wishful thinking wishful thinking. Events start to force the Chinese position, see China unmoved after the strategy actually want to force the Chinese back. To be honest, on a large country like China to force approach is that the U.S. should think twice, let alone the small Republic of Korea, this is undoubtedly Pi Fu shake the tree. South Korea probably know their Private Eyes, and even North Korea have the courage and strength not to take action, there is no way even to China, so he had to pull the U.S. into the water, trying to push to the front of the stage for Huozhongquli United States, eager to claim that what the United States Han Multimodal speech in the U.S. aircraft carrier to participate in such an effort to create a fait accompli, in the manufacture of a crisis between the two countries, to use American power subdue China.
But Americans are not fools. Strategic tinkering with the United States can not allow South Korea, not to serve as South Korea's thugs, the US-ROK strategic nature of the relationship, only South Korea's strategic goal for the United States, but not the United States to South Korea's strategic objectives. Americans are not likely to launch a new Korean war, internal and external conditions do not permit so-called powerless (the interested reader can read the article the author, "the conflict has begun, the war is still very far away - the latest situation on the Korean peninsula, a number of assessment" ), but not so serious in China's strategy of confrontation, it certainly does not want a crisis out of control. Americans are more smooth but neither that camp, do not say no faction, despite South Korea has been performed final model false false style to what U.S. and South Korea engaged in a 2 +2 meeting, to the Koreans to a new level. In fact, the school will not send aircraft carriers to the Multimodal speech, the United States is entirely their own policy decisions, where also need it "+" on what "2."
As can be seen from the crisis, Korea's leadership called macro-poor and low strategic guidance. It is completely swayed by emotions and desires, regardless of the actual, final shooting itself in the foot. Expected to master for their support in negotiations, it is probably false rape all the basic properties of running dogs, running dogs of the past, China is such an ugly traitor, it looks likely that South Korea no exception.
2, in the major strategic interests, China has adopted a firm and uncompromising position.
Yellow Sea is China's major strategic interests of the district, not the Americans do not want to send aircraft carrier to enter, Cheonan-ship event in the context of military exercises into the Yellow Sea, the most direct strategy is intended to threat of war, while North Korea, warned China not to act rashly, not to stick together with the DPRK, the DPRK dismantle virtually alliance (see the analysis of the text the author network, "rejecting his nomination in front of the United States, the Chinese how to fight"). The United States certainly hope to achieve this objective through the exercise, if this deterred North Korea to deter China, the United States of course, happy to laugh. But when the United States to see this play should not only not a deterrent, but may lead to greater strategic times of crisis, it was "Oh, I quit." This is the release of the wind to South Korea, the United States takes no position on the reasons for delay, which the United States to certainty, to see whether the strategy can be accounted for cheap. Can be said that the crisis in the Yellow Sea, China's stance if the slightest hesitation and loose, the United States must take advantage of the use of large-scale military exercises in the Yellow Sea double-edged sword, to close without a fight the effectiveness of the enemy . The Multimodal speech succeed if the United States, the future behavior of U.S. intervention on the Korean Peninsula will be more blatant, the Chinese intervention in the Korean Peninsula and the courage, will and determination will be greatly reduced, therefore, is likely to stop there, simply close the doors from their own. Although we still do not know around the United States Multimodal speech of those behind the scenes between the Bai He game, but the Chinese government's firm adherence to an uncompromising position, which should be incontrovertible.
3, stage victory with far-reaching implications
And tactical battlefield victory in the battle and different, this is a significant strategic victory in a major regional crisis forced the U.S. concessions, not only for the rare Sino-US relations in recent decades, is close to dozens of years is very rare in the world. Its great significance and far-reaching impact than the victory on the battlefield, is worse than.
First of all, North Korea has been a strong strategic support, is a great spiritual inspiration.
North Korea to see this end, China has the determination and ability to defend their personal interests on the Korean Peninsula, "War" and "and" the issue, as long as China is resolutely involved, we can stop the United States and South Korea's strategic ambitions, as long as China has always stood on the Korean side of the Korean peninsula peace is a fundamental protection. This is the Korean government and people continue to withstand the pressure of U.S. and South Korea, is a strong strategic support, but also a great spiritual inspiration.
Second, this situation can be further in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea recurrence.
The reason why the Taiwan independence elements rampant at every turn, the South China Sea from time to time around some of the forces led by arrogance, by relying on the United States to interfere, as long as they shouted, to create a certain sign of trouble, the U.S. Seventh Fleet aircraft carrier task forces came to thundered , and over the years that they rely on this for a strategy on their own insurance. Now, the "risks" seem a little less strong, and think of words against its people with China, they are bound to the hearts of uneasiness, which, uneasy, if the Chinese firm up the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea in an area restricted to draw strategy U.S. aircraft carrier will not be open coming in? It was something to question. Therefore, Taiwan independence or the South China Sea around some of the forces, nor in this Yellow Sea crisis, it is likely to be timid than presuming.
Finally, any potential ulterior motives of believers, is a serious warning.
The total number of forces around China that the United States as long as the waterfront on the "big shots" have strong words with China's capital, not only in a number of controversial issues of bilateral aggressive, even the relationship between China and third countries have to find fault with, say three Road 4, one of China can not but listen, you must do so in the posture. There is a saying in China, the tiger does not get angry, make people as sick cats. In recent years, China did make some people think it is a sick cats, what Shubei can scratch a few came up, the Yellow Sea after the incident, they probably want to look before they leap.
This is undoubtedly a victory for China. Strategic game are generally mixed, but in this crisis, China can basically say that there is room for no loss, how can you say this is not a victory?
Second, this is the result of resolute struggle!
Since a long time, the Sino-US relations, the mainstream "experts" and "scholars" have been the so-called "strategic cooperation" as gospel truth, it seems that China and the U.S. only "cooperation", only "cooperation", a great "all things, the most important matter for large, strategic cooperation," the taste. They were very enthusiastic advocate "dialogue" with the United States of "dialogue" not only as a tremendous honor, but also as an all-powerful panacea, advocates use the "cooperation", "dialogue" to solve all, instead of all. Yellow Sea crisis, and they come up with the magic to play tricks to confuse, say anything important to "cautious but reasonable," "caution, from the overall situation into account", "time to communicate with the ROK, China put forward the exercise worry and concern for Americans and Koreans to understand the feelings of the Chinese people "and so on. Everyone can imagine that, if this crisis this way the Chinese government in accordance with the negotiations with the United States, the U.S. aircraft carrier to the Yellow Sea and stop looking it? The purpose of the United States so-called strategic deterrent, not that add to make each other's concern, increasing concerns about it? And the United States talk about "China's worries and concerns in the exercise", not suit the catering to their likes it? Does China feel as long as talk to the Americans, the U.S. can comfort you? Is not crucial but also tearful, to Bo sympathy?
Fortunately, the Chinese government completely ignored this type of appeasement (which in the end be of any doctrine, but also the reader Analysis - author note) of the uproar, a resolute struggle against the approach taken so that the situation toward turn in the direction of China, not only is the appeasement argument resounding slap in the face of a record, more importantly, reveals the contemporary international strategic relations in several substantive issues:
First, China's vital interests depend on the struggle to defend resolutely.
This is a crisis in the Yellow Sea revealed a truth, the future in the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea will be repeated many times such a truth. Struggle than "cooperation", "dialogue" is more important, there is no struggle there is no ability to "cooperation", "dialogue", even if the "cooperation", "dialogue" can only be reduced to pleading with her appealing, sweet and base.
Second, keeping a low profile not to eat dirt and trampled.
All times adhere to the "people do not make me, I do not prisoners; if we are attacked, I will of prisoners," the right approach, keeping a low profile as China's current strategic direction of a description can not be wrong, but not mechanical in any time, any problems both low profile and people to commit me, I do not prisoners, to a strategy of hide and seek, it can only encourage opponents more intensified.
Perhaps the pro-American pro-Western "experts" and "scholars" who want to argue that, from beginning to end, the United States did not say in Multimodal speech, but where Koreans leaked, so military exercises held last lot of money in the Sea of Japan the United States to retreat. We say, even if the United States has not announced plans to Multimodal speech, but China opposed the US-ROK announced in Multimodal speech is equivalent to the United States to draw up a strategy restricted to the United States has not been saying that the U.S. warships on the high seas freedoms of navigation you ? If not in the Yellow Sea "free" themselves, this is not deterred but also what is it?
Third, the future of the road longer and more severe struggles
Any victory is a product under certain conditions. Yellow Sea crisis, the victory, there is a strong historical background. China's history of strong involvement of the experience of the Korean Peninsula is still deeply imprinted in people's memory, Yu Wei As a result, continues to this day. Therefore, although the coveted heart of the US-ROK, but ultimately did not dare get out very far. However, they will not stop, let go, and careerist ambitions will not be to eliminate, hegemony does not stop trouble, "Make trouble, fail, make trouble again, fail again, until the destruction," which is their only way. The crisis passed, they probably are plotting the future of even greater crisis, create a more serious challenge. It can be said of the future longer, more severe the struggle, China will hide no hide, inevitable, only the courage to meet this challenge.

First, we must dare to be determined and will hegemonic contest.
Speaking of strategy games, people tend to think that the strength of the contest. Is a strategy game based on strength, no power can not play the "game" but not "power" equivalent to "game", the strategic game is called a "game", the key is to use the power of the technique and art, of which the primary the determination and will, without a corresponding determination of the will under no strategic commitment, strategic game out of the question, the strength of the size of the actual amount will not have much meaning. Determination and will is the soul of the strategy, Mao's China, why make any opponents tremble with fear, strength is certainly one aspect is more important is what the Chinese firm and unyielding determination and will. For any one country, lack of commitment or will not, regardless of the strength of the so-called paper calculate how most strong, but in fact can only become a major but not powerless, rich but not strong giant with feet of clay. Frequently been called on that revival of the Chinese system in the world to have a comprehensive strategy and grand strategy, I humbly believe, if even confrontation with the hegemony of the determination and will not have, and always say that China has no intention to challenge U.S. hegemony, where also talk about what the world strategy and strategy? Yellow Sea crisis is a classic contest of determination and the will, which is unprecedented, but it should not and can not be non-repeatable, in the future should also be larger and more firm.

Second, the courage to cross the Yalu River, the new era.
Founding of New China, facing the first major strategic challenge is to dare to cross the Yalu River. Can imagine that, if time does not cross the Yalu River, China could not get the day Northeast Asia strategy game "ticket." By the same token, if you do not cross the strategy of contemporary China on the Yalu River, China will not get the next Asia-Pacific region and the world a number of important strategic game tickets. Nowadays we often see and hear, are the United States in indiscriminately rules and layout, a free hand to contain and contain China, while China name of "strengthening Sino-US strategic cooperation," the sign Qu Yi Sun, and the United States, humbly and dare not raise his flag in a strategic tree flag, but not strategically restricted and territories should draw. I remember when President Johnson once said, the Air Force to bomb the Vietnamese border even if a toilet is also subject to his approval, and even Deng have proposed to improve the Sino-Soviet relations is one of the three conditions for the withdrawal of Soviet troops to Afghanistan, see look at these years of passivity and helplessness, can not feel "the overall situation of Sino-US relations" is simply an inhibition on the right strategy?
In fact, the strategy may seem frantic the U.S. actually weak, which exposed the crisis in the Yellow Sea, fundamentally speaking hegemony in decline, financial and economic crisis once again exposed the real face of its paper tiger, and today we have more reason to strategic on defy it. Developing China as a paper tiger momentum should not be intimidated by the Yellow Sea crisis proved once again that hegemony is the struggle with and fight through the right to defend the interests of victory. This is a valuable experience in any case, this experience has long been the only first-hand experience of contemporary China is only this time it also.
July 21 to participate in the US-ROK 2 +2 talks U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates came close ranks with the military demarcation line on the famous, both raised their binoculars. For a time, this meaningful picture all over the pages of various media. People will ask, at this moment, these two worthy into the minds of prominent figures in the world-class Hesuo Si, what are they? The face of unattainable peninsula north, how about the wages that they do? I believe they must be feeling desolate. This is a strategy for the United States can not exceed the red line, probably the world's only remaining strategy for the United States can not exceed the bottom line, and through this a "Tian-ship incident," this strategy has not only become more clear and bright red, with waves rolling in the Yellow Sea is also likely to be difficult to set foot in the United States restricted area, it can not help make the world's mind was filled with emotion American strategists do? And look, if I replaced, I have deep generous Moment of Romance is also the old days, things vicissitudes of human He Yikan it!

They will be willing to do? The answer is definitely not, therefore, more strategic crises yet to come.

1 Post a Comment:

Warfare is a fascinating subject. Despite the dubious morality of using violence to achieve personal or political aims. It remains that conflict has been used to do just that throughout recorded history.

Your article is very well done, a good read.