10/17/2009

Analysis of China's most likely to face local war in future

War and peace, from the text to understand conflicting, objective reality is inseparable Throughout Chinese history, world history, before the advent of peace, human to go through a variety of brutal, soul-stirring war. Our countries are now walking on the road of peaceful rise, will calm and tranquil? The world powers would willingly let China successfully embarked on top of the world? If war is inevitable, how should our country to solve the problem overnight, without prejudice to the national economy? In this paper, several aspects of the above, published a little brother's humble opinion, the first post, welcome to make more valuable advice.

First, China in the world why so lonely?

Human fear of loneliness, is typical of social animals, countries also fear of loneliness, love to make friends in the world today, some of China maverick flavor, some people say that we are great and proud country has always pursued "to have friends from afar ... ...", I am sorry Other countries do not see us, There is a saying, "Wang Ling from the side as a peak, near and far different level, does not know the truth about the matter, only the edge of the body in this mountain." gone through 60 years of New China, winding along the way , thorns clouds, the infighting in the world powers, the Chinese people give full play to their wisdom, 60-year history, is the pride of China's diplomacy, but also a manifestation of the wisdom of the great Chinese people, but these can only be written in the books, circulating in the China's streets, very little recognition of foreign, who believe that China in 60 years, has pro-Soviet, pro-United States, United Russia, the policy has repeatedly swings and change, and even friendship with blood coagulation are also short-lived, sudden, would be against each other, so they do not trust China, coupled with differences between national systems, Western countries exclude China, they see themselves as mainstream, to China and Russia as a maverick ( "Lone Ranger" is a euphemism I have a better, in fact We are regarded as the future rival).

The face of the so-called "mainstream" their arrogance and prejudice, we can do about it? Issue a statement, made promises, in order to exculpate himself, can change the views of other countries? The answer I do not have to say, we know very well. History has proved that both the pro-Soviet or pro-American, are merely a pawn in great power game - just more than North Korea, Vietnam and other components of the full number of pieces - but still a pawn. Without giving up the party's leadership, does not change under the premise of people of faith, want to change our image, only a new look to show to the world, unique at the moment of our great leaders of the "Third World country" concept, which for the present China is very important to ah. Today, China's national strength continued to improve and ability to take the bright road of its own, no longer subject to the pull of others, and only the courage to stand up against any country dare to say "no" and dare to face their enemies, will find our own genuine friends.
Secondly, a strong country, roads are blocked everywhere?

Netizens is located, is a military forum, the military fans there will always be imaginary, false war and a potential threat, in fact, like the Taiwan Strait crisis, the embassy bombing in this vicious incident, the Chinese people still live in a peaceful environment in.

China lags far behind in the world, has fast two hundred years, and nearly two hundred years of modern history, the world has undergone tremendous changes, we have experienced two world wars, a new world pattern has been formed, and this new pattern, the China factor minimal , because we left out too far. China catch up with the process, they will be the beneficiaries of all the world's pattern of challenges, just to say that the world is not deliberately directed at China, but China's return to the world's pinnacle of the process, challenges the world is too much have an interest. We have great confidence that we have back, but these things have been occupied by foreign powers for too long. Encountered strong resistance, just proved that we walk in the right path, the face of resistance, User can say one of you go from here for three days and three nights.

Third, China's road of peaceful rise can take us very far?

Since the birth of new China, it caught in the middle of the two superpowers in the world, no country, like China, like the face of such a complex international environment, "peaceful rise" is our confession of the world: we want to develop, not war .

To turn over a country to change the whole world the new order period, the Association experienced war, and no one knows better than the ruling group of voluntary stepped down, a peaceful transition, neighboring countries unfriendly to us most, who is manipulating behind the scenes? To see the nature of the problem, if directly behind the beat, you can call it "the best policy", everything is solved.

But we have to solve the problem in the end the nature of capacity? Netizens want to remain sober, clear understanding of the gap between China and the world's developed countries, I believe that at least four decades, the Chinese do not have this capability.

Does it mean that blind patient? In the "peaceful rise" policy, we did a lot of patience for a long time, the patient may be blind, and did not let the world from that of China (as I said before this is impossible), the international environment has not improved, on the contrary a small country casual Dugan accounted for one of China's territory, buy a few planes and then "swear to defend," is bliss, is it still Zairen? The author believes that, compared with the best policy, he stubbornly patient can be referred to as "worst." Second choice, then where? Second choice can be understood as a compromise strategy is last resort, can not fight, can not directly hit, only set an example, or teach the monkeys kill a chicken. Second choice is a double-edged sword, lost the battle, sweeping the Chinese face, and then dare not say that "rising", wins, you can play Paul, neighboring countries will serve to deter frequent insatiable, Hujiahuwei, in exchange for a peace to our borders, of course, Zhongce also achieved just that, at most, cut off the powers of one of China's tentacles stretch.

I venture to believe that China will inevitably face the dispute, who did not want to live quietly at home, may be someone will one day come its way. Fourth, the scale of war predictions.

Just saw a User used to be a third world war broke out in Asia, the article was very impressed, the only not agree, that is, to determine the size of the war, I believe that during the Cold War between the Soviet Union failed to the outbreak of World World War II, in this one-polar world, the more impossible, because there is only one, that is, a terrorist's nuclear deterrent, if the birth of nuclear weapons, the only contribution to mankind, I am afraid that is provoking a war of nuclear weapons so that all the countries then a legislator, even the Soviet Union such as Super strong and foes have repeatedly put up with, in all corners of the world, indirectly, ideas, expertise alone can not come to the stage. The United States advocated the complete elimination of nuclear weapons, precisely because its conventional forces has reached a level sufficient to destroy any opponent without the opponent's nuclear deterrent, the United States will be invincible, this is a big conspiracy.

Asia will definitely be a war, create a new world order, while the United States secure on the throne of the world's first, no reason to die in other countries return to the Stone Age braving the enormous risks of full participation, so definitely not a war in Asia World War, but a local wars - may be very confused and bitter war in the Ministry. Fifth, the war opponents forecast.

To say that we choose war opponents, like the taste of some of the initiative to provoke a war, in fact, China's neighboring countries, there are several not hostile to China? A few did not seize the Chinese pigtail Busong Shou (China's vulnerable point is that the territorial issue, the sovereignty issue, not a single government hopes back the history of offenses)? Therefore, we need to look at the future of the opponent selection, the opponents need to have the following conditions: give full play to our troops and ensure victory in the war; opponents sufficiently robust enough to deter the rest of hostile forces.

After 60 years of building a people's army, plagued by the international situation, naval air power is obviously weak, in order to defend the country, casting out a sufficiently strong deterrent to any external invasion of the army, China can rule the roost in the world of weapons and equipment, the vast most of them land-based equipment, so I believe that, in order to fight a must win and not lose the battle, can only choose to land battles, sea and air forces only as a supplement and deterrence (such as the Air Force Auxiliary Army, deterrence, such as the valuable nuclear submarines), neighboring countries, besides Russia, is India, and now an intense discussion of the Indian netizens war, I also thought that if war, which rivals the most likely is that in India, and how to cross the border on the mountains, this is a professional issues have been resolved professionals, faced with vast plains, will maximize the advantages of our military, move forward and attack, retreat and defend.

Sino-Indian war has also helped several of our buddies, Pakistan, India's crazy all these years with the expansion of the lung power to rival Pakistan, with an increasing shortage of.

Fifth, about the opponents

Netizens in India, it is 100 Qiaobu Shang, for example, India has developed a new equipment, and early on the CPE, while China is likely to be made public only after the mass production of military equipment; India daily have been practicing martial arts mouth, while China has been silent and uttered not a word. I think the country is really not even a result of the international environment, India has the backing of the United States and Western countries, Russia is also glance right and rip them off, so in India itself as the mainstream groups, spokesmen for the world today, the collapse of the West of China's bridgehead, so they learn the United States, every day crying, every day, commenting on every day in advocating the China threat, while China the Lone Ranger, the most intelligent choice is to silence, even if we dared to stand up, we are still lonely. We do not want introverted, but had restrained a few hundred years ago, Zheng He's voyages, led by the world's most powerful fleet, at that time China would not have introverted, you can openly Enze the Quartet, or meet the enemy fire, and At that time in China, tell the world we want peace, no one say no letter.

We should objectively look at the neighbor, India lags behind in many aspects of China, but India's external environment, much stronger than us, regardless of money or not, people can choose arbitrarily in the world's top conventional weapons, which is We can not compare with that others also used to buy non-smoothly and can not form a fighting force, such a thing is too sour, envy, feelings of loneliness, the same piece of equipment to buy, we have opened and equipped to digest, and learn, and build out the better; India will not be used in conjunction with, only waiting for it slowly rusting into scrap metal. The gap between the two countries really have so much? Yesterday we also book claiming to be "and the Western capitalist countries there is a huge gap between the large agricultural country," Today the face of India, we immediately become a "have a solid industrial base and industrial power?" Say that these only hope that netizens remain sober-minded understanding of the situation, India behind us, but the gap is not so great.

And then talk about our understanding of the Indian Army, at this point we have to scoff, because China has victory over India, now the eyes of netizens, a People's Liberation Army, at least be able to kill 10 Indian soldiers, right? According to my little understanding, Indian soldiers are professional soldiers, from generation to generation in the army, soldiers, soldier's experience would grandpa his son, his son and then passed to grandchildren, Indian soldiers of the quality is very high, at least not in the PLA's combat effectiveness under the , when the Sino-Indian war, many Chinese recruits because of smoking, was killed by Indians oily, which only scene in the movie, in that war is real. We must not underestimate the quality and capacity of future opponents.

Sixth, with regard to naval warfare

Since China lost the Sino-Japanese War, seemingly has never had a decent navy, also not to mention a large-scale sea battle, and the new China was founded, has experience of the Sino-US and Sino-Soviet confrontation, the objective of the Navy air force has caused extreme weakness, subjectively similar to China and Iraq, for a long period of time pay attention to create "the army power," the Gulf War, the Chinese-made weapons, there is no resistance, we finally saw the huge gap between the United States began efforts to develop the navy and air force, our army navy and air force can not be denied the construction speed is leaps and bounds, but the gap is still very evident, marine for the United States, with similar internal lakes, water everywhere is full of underwater Stars and Stripes, so I think this writer to judge this, China over the next few Within a decade, large-scale naval battle is unlikely, especially online games enthusiastic about the Sino-Japanese war, a war to recover Taiwan, because Japan is dominated by the U.S. military, but as long as Taiwan does not declare independence, the mainland is really no reason why aggressive in neighboring countries The harsh environment, fight a civil war to consume itself.

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