Russian experts believe that China's development is very similar in many respects the year of Germany, faced with the need to expand living space dilemma. Extensive development of modern China, a large consumption of external resources, manufacturing, industrial goods sold abroad. In order to avoid collapse, China must maintain regular growth, this consumes more and more external resources. Once you stop growing, they begin to gradually collapse. China needs more agricultural land, water, forest, oil, metals and coal. China's dependence on external resources and food supply, their own lack of resources, dependence on imported oil is about 55%. Severely constrained by China's growth increased year by year supply of food and energy, once lost, would cause unrest in the country after a few months, industrial production stagnated, the power supply will also be lost due to fuel shortages. In addition, the U.S. system by the constraints of the Chinese and U.S. sides of a coin. China is the factory, the decline in U.S. demand automatically lead to a serious economic downturn. Moreover, the Chinese control of marine transport routes capacity is weak, as long as Indonesia, Malaysia, China cut off access to most of the food and raw materials by sea transport routes Malacca Strait, China would appear a very serious problem, not to mention the U.S. Navy Fleet powerful, can fully control of the Chinese maritime lifeline.
China's naval power is not particularly strong, may be limited to coastal waters, such as the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, South China Sea, subject to the U.S. in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan to build the first line of defense. China is in fact not really able to fight for its allies, North Korea and Pakistan-China Friendship Association has a very large precondition, but because of their advantage. North Korea has almost no friends in the world, and friendly with Pakistan and China is mainly to counter India, nothing more. China both in the Islamic world, or in the West, have no real allies. Moreover, almost all of China's neighbors are "enemies" at least serious conflict in the past, and now China and Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, India still have territorial disputes, but also face the problem of recovering Taiwan reunification. Neighbors are not willing to see China's rapid take-off, worried about China's military strength continues to grow, from the East, South, West, all its neighbors are a lot of people, the army is very strong, Japan, Korea, India and even the military's technological level is still high.
Russian experts pointed out that China still faced with the extreme challenge of separatist forces in Tibet and Xinjiang regional issues often make it a headache, even more worrying is that old enemy of India bordering Tibet and Xinjiang and neighboring Afghanistan. In addition, Xinjiang is China's oil and coal storage, accounting for 30% of oil reserves, 34% of natural gas reserves, Turkmenistan is also the natural gas pipeline to China must pass through, once they become "China's Chechnya", the consequences disastrous.
In addition, neighboring countries may also create a lot of problems for China, especially in the area surrounding the outbreak of war in national circumstances, such as Thailand and Cambodia conflict, Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines may also be a large-scale civil war broke out.
Western China, the current processing needs, but if the two sides to deepen contradictions in the West may begin to shift production to other countries, such as the labor cost advantages of Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Temporarily in the border area of China is now the only threat to the strategic direction from the north, mainly Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan. But China will risk the elite decided to adopt the aggressive expansion of living space in these countries is also a big problem. In this regard, China is temporarily limited to economic and population expansion, once could not withstand the temptation of aggression, will inevitably lead to unpredictable consequences and may even result in huge casualties, and even national extinction. The only chance of survival should be with Russia to comprehensively strengthen the close and mutually beneficial cooperation and common development.
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