7/02/2012

Russian military will not join war even if China and Russia build military alliance

With the Sino-Russian relations have become closer, especially the complexity of the situation of international security challenges between the two countries increased, some people called on both countries to establish a military alliance. In my opinion, do not need an alliance between China and Russia strategic and cooperative relations in the non-league state more conducive to the interests of both sides.

Sino-Russian relations

First, the current multi-level cooperation in the field of China and Russia, rooted in the two countries need to safeguard common interests, to establish the theory of consensus between the two countries in a series of international and regional security issues and value the basis of consensus. Therefore, the strategic partnership of cooperation do not need to use the provisions of relevant laws and treaties of alliance obligations to maintain.

Second, despite the increased security challenges, but both countries did not exist was the risk of large-scale military invasion. Russia faces Western security situation is not the state of military confrontation and the Cold War era NATO with China in the same category. Although Northeast Asia is a worldwide relics aftermath of the Cold War most areas, the military alliance of some countries is still quite active military friction between North and South Korea have occurred, but the military status of the kind of tense at the beginning of the 1950s no longer exists. Therefore, China and Russia do not need to form a military alliance to ensure that the country safe, the two countries are facing multiple threats to security in the vast majority of cases, is unable or unfit by the massive use of force to solve, which makes the form a military The alliance becomes not necessary.

Third, one of the core tasks of the Sino-Russian strategic cooperative relations after the establishment of a new international order conducive to peace and development of the Cold War era, China and Russia jointly initiated the Shanghai Spirit, advocated the adoption of cooperation, consultation, compromise, dialogue, respect for diverse civilizations and seeking common development to achieve lasting peace and stability. Forced to self-defense, both against the indiscriminate use of force in international affairs, oppose hegemony security, this is a new security concept and mode different from the Cold War era. Non-Aligned is consistent with the Shanghai Spirit.

Fourth, the Non-Aligned beneficial to both China and Russia to maintain mutual equality and mutual respect and partnership. Whether or remain a military alliance of the Cold War era, whether multilateral or bilateral military alliance, has a de facto leader of the country. This is not only weak country needed to attach the power of the Union, and superior-subordinate relationship will result in some kind of permanent joint military command structure will inevitably lead to the de facto inequality between countries. Early 1950s, the Sino-Soviet military alliance is the case, NATO is also true. Due to the rapid growth of China's national strength, the Russian domestic worried that Russia and China to establish a closer relationship may be coerced by China's foreign policy views the increase in China and Russia to keep non-aligned nature is more conducive to the stable development of bilateral relations.

Fivth, the national situation between Chinese and Russian is very different, and the peripheral security environment and security issues that they are facing there are many different, the two sides established the strategic cooperative relationship rather than the alliance between their respective national interests to deal with different external security and economic leaving the necessary room for maneuver. China and Russia on all issues are the position of exactly the same on all issues of mutual support on some issues the two sides take as long as the parallel policy, do not oppose each other's policy is a kind of support. For example, Russia grid end of the war in August 2008, the Russian State Duma passed a resolution to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia independence, the Chinese government said that the silence did not follow the policy of Russia, this is because China has its own the Taiwan issue. Similarly, in the multilateral economic cooperation under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Russia and China's position is not entirely consistent, Russia more enthusiastic in his leadership, promoting the Eurasian Economic Union, not only with Central Asian countries, but also contains non-Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states, Belarus, the best Ukraine, which is also understandable. Both the non-alliance relationship is conducive to maintain the necessary room for maneuver for their own policies.

Sixth, large-scale war, the Allies may not be in any case be able to provide direct military support. Advocate that China and Russia established the alliance between the Chinese strategic analysts, according to the 2008 "Taiwan independence" forces, especially arrogant posture, external forces directly involved in to help defend Taiwan, Russia to China on the mainland were forced to use force to prevent "Taiwan independence" direct military support, and even war. But history has shown that before and after the Cold War allies may or may not be in a party involved in military conflict, to provide direct military support. For example, in February 1979, the Chinese armed forces in Vietnam in self-defense war and distance in November 1978, Vietnam and the Soviet Union signed a military alliance of the "Friendship and Cooperation Treaty" But more than three months, but the Soviet Union was continuing for a whole month more war period only in the the Suifenhe the vicinity of several military exercises. In addition there is a more obvious example: the United States before and after the Iraq war in March 2003, the military action was the resolute opposition of its NATO allies, Germany and France.